INDIA / USA – India’s economy is poised for a rebound after enduring a second wave of COVID-19 infections this year that further constrained activity and took a heavy toll on its people.
“What happens in India has a big impact, both in the region and in the world,” Luis Breuer, IMF’s senior resident representative to India, said in a recent IMF podcast. “You’re talking about a large slice of humanity and the global economy.”
India’s broad range of fiscal, monetary and health responses to the crisis supported its recovery and, along with economic reforms, are helping to mitigate a longer-lasting adverse impact of the crisis, according to the latest annual review by IMF staff.
Though policy steps helped mitigate the pandemic, it’s still likely to result in greater poverty and inequality. And the path of recovery will follow the path of the virus.
New infections have fallen significantly and vaccination rates have risen to surpass a billion doses, although another resurgence is not impossible even if it seems unlikely today. “There’s a lot of uncertainty about COVID,” Breuer said. “We cannot rule out future waves.”