- The research finds that many developing countries risk experiencing disruption before seeing benefits from Generative AI.
GENEVA, Switzerland, (ILO News) – A new joint working paper by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the World Bank finds that generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is set to reshape labour markets worldwide, but with uneven impacts across countries. In developing economies, disruption may materialise faster than productivity gains due to existing digital gaps and differences in how work is performed.
The paper – a joint ILO and World Bank background study for the World Development Report 2026 – examines labour market exposure to GenAI across 135 countries, covering around two-thirds of global employment. It shows that differences in digital infrastructure and job task composition are key in shaping how risks and opportunities are distributed between advanced and developing economies.
Exposure to GenAI is higher in advanced economies, particularly in clerical and professional occupations. Developing countries, while less exposed overall, face structural constraints that limit their ability to benefit from the technology.
A key finding is the role of the digital divide. Workers in jobs vulnerable to automation are often already online, even in low-income settings, meaning job losses could happen relatively quickly. These jobs often represent relatively higher-quality jobs in lower-income countries, including clerical and administrative positions that have historically offered a pathway to decent work, particularly for women and young workers. The concern is that AI-driven automation could close off these pathways.
At the same time, many workers in roles with potential for productivity gains lack reliable internet access in lower-income settings, limiting their ability to benefit from GenAI. In addition, while occupations may share similar titles across countries, the tasks performed in the same job differ significantly depending on the location. The paper shows that workers in lower-income economies tend to perform fewer non-routine analytical tasks, rely less on computers at work and have more routine or manual work, reducing the scope for productivity gains from GenAI implementation.
Overall, the research finds that GenAI’s labour market impact will depend not only on technological capability, but also on digital infrastructure, task organisation, and skills. The paper points to the need for policies that expand digital connectivity, support skills development, and strengthen labour market institutions and social protection systems to ensure that the benefits of GenAI are more widely shared.
