CASTRIES, St Lucia –ย ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ ๐๐๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎโ๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐บ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ถ๐ ๐ณ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ป ๐บ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป is recovering. Data released by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank in December 2025 show that total visitor arrivals fell by ๐ฏ.๐ต percent between ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ, equivalent to ๐ญ๐ฐ,๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฏ fewer visitors than in the same period a year earlier. The IMF has described this as a ๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐, ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐น๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐น ๐ฐ๐น๐ผ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฟ๐น๐ถ๐ณ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ. Yet the data suggest the weakness is broader and more structural in nature.
Every major tourism segment contracted. Stay-over arrivals declined by ๐ฏ.๐ฎ percent (๐ญ๐ฌ,๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ ๐ณ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐), cruise arrivals by ๐ญ๐ฐ.๐ฐ percent (๐ฒ๐ต,๐ฌ๐ด๐ฐ ๐ณ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ๐), yacht arrivals by ๐ฒ.๐ด percent (๐ฎ,๐ญ๐ฐ๐ด ๐ณ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ) and excursionists by ๐ญ๐ณ.๐ด percent (๐ญ,๐ณ๐ฐ๐ญ ๐ณ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ). This was not a single-market shock but a system-wide slowdown affecting the islandโs principal growth engine.
A look at the market composition reveals a worrying story
The stay-over market reveals where the strain lies. Arrivals from the ๐จ๐ป๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ฑ๐ผ๐บ fell by ๐ญ๐ด.๐ฎ percent, amounting to ๐ญ๐ฌ,๐ฐ๐ด๐ฎ fewer visitors. Canada recorded a ๐ญ๐ฐ.๐ฏ percent decline, or 3,800 fewer arrivals, while other countries, largely continental Europe fell by 6.8 percent (1,011 fewer). These losses were only partly offset by the United States, where arrivals grew by ๐ฎ.๐ฏ percent, adding ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ฑ ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐, and by a marginal increase from the Caribbean market of ๐ฌ.๐ต percent, ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ผ๐บ ๐ฐ๐ฌ,๐ต๐ฏ๐ด ๐๐ผ ๐ฐ๐ญ,๐ฏ๐ญ๐ฎ.
The result is a growing dependence on a single source market, whether policy-induced or imposed from outside. The United States now carries the weight of Saint Luciaโs stay-over performance, cushioning declines elsewhere but increasing exposure to external economic and geopolitical risk.
Cruise tourism: Fewer passengers despite more calls
Cruise tourism performed even worse. Passenger arrivals fell by ๐๐.๐ percent, ๐ข๐ง ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ ๐๐.๐ percent decline in cruise calls, from 292 in 2024 to 212 in 2025. Even more telling is the longer-term comparison. By 2024, cruise calls were 9% above their 2019 level, yet cruise passenger numbers remained ๐๐,๐๐๐ below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting smaller vessels, altered itineraries, or weaker onshore demand.
Spending declines while exaggerates impact
Visitor spending mirrored the downturn. Total visitor expenditure between January and September fell by ๐ณ.๐ฎ percent, ๐ผ๐ฟ $๐ญ๐ต๐ฎ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. But even when expenditure appears strong, it overstates tourismโs domestic impact. Tourism receipts recorded in the balance of payments capture gross spending, not what is retained locally. So using such an indicator might actually prove not very useful coupled with the fact that its methodological accuracy has been called into question by the IMF.
In 2024, total tourism expenditure was estimated at $๐ฏ.๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. Yet the combined contribution of Accommodation and Food Services and Transport (land, sea and air) to GDP amounted to roughly $๐ญ.๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ณ percent ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐บ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ฝ๐๐. The remainder leaks out; if it ever reaches Saint Lucia’s shores through imports, profit repatriation by foreign-owned hotels and airlines, international booking platforms, and prepaid travel arrangements made abroad.
Employment: The numbers donโt add up
One statistic does not fit neatly. Employment in tourism rose sharply in 2025. The sector employed ๐ญ๐ณ,๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ค๐ฏ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ, ๐๐ฝ ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ผ๐บ ๐ญ๐ฏ,๐ด๐ณ๐ญ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ค๐ฏ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ, ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฏ,๐ญ๐ฑ๐ฐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐, even as arrivals fell by nearly 4 percent. This divergence raises questions about ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐, ๐น๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐, ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐น๐ฎ๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ต๐ถ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฑ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฝ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ.
Has tourism recovered? Only partially
By 2024, total visitor arrivals reached ๐ฐ๐ต๐ญ,๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฏ, ๐ฒ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ด.๐ฑ percent ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ต ๐๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ต,๐ฎ๐ฒ๐ญ. Stay-over arrivals, however, has fully recovered, rising from ๐ฏ๐ด๐ฌ,๐ณ๐ต๐ญ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ต ๐๐ผ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฑ,๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฏ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ. This recovery was driven almost entirely by the United States market, which surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2022, rising from ๐ญ๐ต๐ญ,๐ณ๐ญ๐ต ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ต ๐๐ผ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฌ,๐ญ๐ฒ๐ฒ.
All other markets remain below their pre-pandemic peaks: ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฎ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ด๐ณ percent, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐จ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ด percent, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฒ๐ด percent, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ณ๐ฏ percent. What is certain is that the recovery is narrow and uneven.
A fragile outlook
Looking ahead, risks are skewed to the downside. Heightened geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Saint Luciaโs dominant source market alongside weak growth in the UK and Europe could further suppress arrivals. Cruise tourism remains especially vulnerable to security concerns in the wider Caribbean.
What does this implies?
Saint Luciaโs post-2020 tourism performance appears to have been driven less by domestic competitiveness than by a region-wide rebound that is now fading. As neighbouring destinations such as Grenada, Dominica, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and St Kitts ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฟ๐น๐ถ๐ณ๐, ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฑ ๐ต๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐น ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ถ๐๐, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ถ๐๐๐โ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐๐๐ต ๐ฎ๐ด๐ด๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ-๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด, ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ ๐๐๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ธ๐ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ.
The data point to a deeper question: ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ ๐๐๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎโ๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐บ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ ๐ณ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ? Without a clear answer, the island risks remaining dependent on favourable external tides, mistaking recovery elsewhere for resilience at home.
Whatโs next?
A more comprehensive analysis will follow to establish whether Saint Lucia is, in fact, ceding market share to its regional peers, particularly within the OECS and Barbados. The evidence warrants closer scrutiny. Stay tuned.
