TORTOLA, BVI – Forecasters at the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project are warning that the region will likely see above-average levels of storm activity during the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which begins June 1.
During an April 4 presentation at the Tropical Weather Conference, Senior Research Scientist Dr Phil Klotzbach said that the Atlantic basin is forecast to see 23 named storms over the course of the season. Eleven hurricanes are expected to form, and of those, five are expected to develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger.
Dr Klotzbach said higher than average sea temperatures will provide heat energy conducive to storm development, while a return to La Nina conditions later this year will mean very little vertical wind shear to disrupt the organisation and strengthening of storm systems.
Director of Disaster Management Jasen Penn said that while conditions and expectations can change as the season develops, this forecast should prompt residents to prepare early for the possibility of seasonal storms.
“The reality is that regardless of the forecast, it remains important for persons to take steps to prepare, because just one storm coming to our area can be devastating,” Penn said.
The director noted that forecasters predict a 66 percent probability of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean Sea, compared to 47 percent probability in an average year.
Penn continued: “Probabilities are not certainties, but I would encourage all of us to take all steps possible to be ready for seasonal storms. As we often say, it is better to prepare and prevent than to repair and repent.”
As the hurricane season approaches, residents are urged to monitor local weather reports, which are shared daily via the DDM website and social media channels. Updates are more frequent when a system poses a potential threat.
Other steps that can help prepare before a storm include:
- Downloading the DDM App;
- Making or updating an emergency plan;
- Inspecting roofs, gutters, shutters and drainage paths;
- Assembling essential supplies such as food, water, and medication
- Purchasing or updating insurance policies
– The Department of Disaster Management is a government department which operates under the legal authority of the Deputy Governor’s Office.
