Abstract
The Climate Action Monitor is the annual flagship publication of the International Programme for Action on Climate (IPAC). Building on the IPAC Dashboard of climate-related indicators, it provides insights on global climate action and progress towards net-zero targets for 51 OECD and OECD partner countries. This year’s edition presents a comprehensive evaluation of net-zero targets, major climate-related hazards, and the key trends in climate action. Directed towards policy makers and practitioners, the findings suggest that current 2030 commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not ambitious enough to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, and that without a significant expansion in national climate action, countries will not be able to meet the net-zero challenge.
Executive summary
Climate hazards and disasters are increasing and devastating communities worldwide
The year 2024 is on track to set new records for global warming with unprecedented national temperature levels. For the twelfth consecutive month, the global average temperature was 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial era. By August 2024, 15 national temperature heat records were broken across the world. Increasing temperatures, coupled with increasingly variable precipitation patterns, have had dramatic effects across the world.
For example, Southern Africa experienced its driest February in a century, while the United Kingdom experienced its second-wettest period in the past two centuries. The People’s Republic of China witnessed a record number of significant floods, and the hottest July since 1961. Flooding in central Europe was unprecedented, a one in a 300-hundred-year event in terms of the extent of damages. Wildfires in Canada in 2024 have been devastating. These extreme weather events have destroyed lives and livelihoods with economic losses and damages yet to be fully assessed.
These dramatic events are confirmed by OECD data tracking climate-related hazards. Over 42 percent of the population in 50 countries and the EU covered under IPAC experienced at least 2 weeks of extreme temperatures in 2023. Of these, in 21 countries, the population exposed to tropical nights over 2019-23 increased by 10% compared to 1981-2010. The temperatures recorded in 2024 further highlight this trend, which not only has direct impacts but can also intensify hazards such as hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts and extreme rainfall. This, in turn, can affect vulnerable populations, ecosystems and infrastructure. Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns disproportionately affect vulnerable countries, exacerbating the impacts of extreme weather events and further deepening social and economic inequalities.
Agricultural drought conditions and extreme precipitation events are intensifying. OECD data on average soil moisture continues to fall in most countries over the period 2019-2023. These drought conditions can be particularly acute at the subnational level and during specific seasons, generating major social and economic consequences. This situation is aggravated by altered rainfall patterns. Over 18 percent of the population of countries covered under IPAC is exposed to the risk of river flooding. This risk can be as high as 40 percent for some countries. Similarly, more than 2.6 percent of the population in these countries is exposed to the risk of coastal flooding.
Triggering climate tipping points risks disrupting the climate on a global scale, creating a planetary emergency. Tipping points, such as the disintegration of ice sheets and the weakening of ocean currents, may already be underway and the risk of crossing more climate tipping points increases considerably at 1.5°C, potentially leading to catastrophic impacts on the climate. Meltwater from ice-sheet collapse, for example, contributes to a slowdown of the ocean currents, which in turn may contribute to impacts in other ecosystems, highlighting the interconnectedness of these major environmental changes. Immediate action to limit global warming to 1.5°C is essential to prevent cascading effects of climate tipping points that could lead to a planetary emergency.
GHG emission reduction commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals. More ambition and efforts are needed to achieve net zero by 2050
The Paris Agreement has been crucial in strengthening climate action, but a significant ambition gap remains. By August 2024, 195 Parties have communicated their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, emission reduction targets in the current set of NDCs are insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Even if current NDCs (considering unconditional targets) are fully implemented, estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to reach 55 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (Gt CO2e) in 2030. This reveals an ambition gap of around 22 Gt CO2e to limit global warming to 1.5°C estimated to be consistent with global GHG emissions of 33 Gt CO2e.
Furthermore, the current net-zero targets are not ambitious enough. By August 2024, 110 Parties, covering 88% of global GHG emissions, have pledged net-zero targets. However, even if all these net-zero targets are met, total emissions are estimated to reach 21 Gt CO2e in 2050. This will exceed considerably the 8 Gt CO2e level estimated to be necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C. In addition, the lack of legally binding net-zero targets in most countries poses a risk that these commitments may not be fully achieved. Only 27 countries and the European Union, representing 16 percent of global GHG emissions, have legally enshrined their net-zero targets.
Global emissions continued to grow in 2023. Global GHG emissions (including land-use, land-use change and forestry) increased by 1.3 percent between 2022 and 2023. This implies that current global emissions need to decrease by 2030 by 43 percent to achieve the 1.5°C and 27 percent to reach the 2°C temperature goals.
Given that countries are soon to submit the next round of NDCs for 2035 and Biennial Transparency Reports, it is critical that they address both the ambition and implementation gaps. Updated NDCs should be aligned with the 1.5°C considering economy-wide targets; and long-term legally binding GHG emission reduction targets will be critical for achieving the Paris Agreement goals.
Progress in national climate policy efforts remains insufficient. Policy implementation needs to be scaled-up.
The 2 percent expansion of government climate mitigation policy action in 2023 is not sufficient to meet countries’ NDCs, indicating the existence of an implementation gap. The Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF) measures climate policy action by governments both in terms of policy density (i.e. the number of policies in place in a country) and stringency (i.e. the degree to which climate policies incentivise or enable GHG emissions mitigation). It is a climate mitigation policy database centred on a structured policy typology that tracks a common set of policies with harmonised policy attributes on an annual basis. It covers all OECD and partner countries except the USA.
Over the last decade, climate policy action for the countries covered by the CAPMF expanded, on average, by 10 percent annually. However, in 2022 and 2023 climate policy action only expanded by 1 percent and 2 percent respectively. Although the CAPMF does not measure effectiveness directly, it is an indicator of policy effort. The observed slow expansion in climate policy action poses a risk of countries failing to achieve their NDCs. In fact, recent evidence from UNEP confirms that current climate policy action is not strong enough to realise the emission reduction targets set out in countries’ NDCs.
The slow progress in climate policy action is underpinned by diverse policy developments across sectors and types of policy instruments. The expansion, albeit limited, was primarily driven by strengthening existing policies rather than by adopting new ones, highlighting the importance of recognising countries’ efforts to increase policy stringency. Climate policy action concentrating on non-market-based policy instruments expanded thanks to strengthened regulations such as minimum energy performance standards. Policies related to setting targets, governance, the provision of climate data and international co-operation increased slightly after having grown significantly with the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. However, policies implemented through market-based instruments declined, mainly due to reduced subsidies for renewable energy.
The gap in national climate policy action between OECD and partner countries continued to widen in 2023. While climate mitigation policy action expanded in both OECD and OECD partner countries, the gap in climate policy density and stringency between the two groups increased by 2 percent. Diverging climate policy action, especially stringency, affects competitiveness and may trigger carbon leakage, reinforcing the need for more international co-operation on climate policy action.
There is no one size fits all policy approach and no single recipe for their effectiveness. A policy mix results from a complex interaction between past climate action, climate ambitions, emissions profiles and available technologies as well as countries’ cultural, social, political and institutional conditions.
Differences in climate policy action between OECD and partner countries is mostly driven by differences in policy density rather than policy stringency. OECD countries generally use more complex mix of policies to reduce emissions and strengthened their stringency. OECD partner countries have less stringent policies, though some countries reach stringency levels of OECD countries. The CAPMF data illustrates that some countries prefer to adopt relatively few, albeit stringent, policies. Conversely, others prefer to adopt many policies with rather low stringency.
Some sector-specific climate policy action has picked up in 2023. This was driven by increased policy action in the transport, building and industry sectors. In contrast, climate policy action in the electricity sector decreased, primarily due to fewer renewable energy auctions. The latter was accompanied by a rise of electricity-related emissions.
Climate policy action is misaligned with sectoral emissions profiles. Descriptive analysis from the CAPMF suggests that climate policy action may not be well-aligned across emission source sectors. For example, although transport accounts for the highest share of energy-related emissions in OECD countries, climate action is second to lowest. Similarly, in OECD partner countries, climate policy action in the electricity sector is the lowest, yet this sector accounts for the largest share of emissions. Although there are many other considerations, such as effectiveness, equity and costs, these, albeit indicative, results would suggest that there are possible avenues for more effective climate action by better aligning climate policy with emission sources.
To address climate-related hazards, countries are increasingly developing national adaptation strategies. There is significant progress in the number of countries submitting National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and National Adaptation Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, it is still unclear whether these plans are underpinned by concrete policy actions and robust monitoring frameworks. More work is necessary to consistently track adaptation policies to support stakeholder engagement, promote peer learning and raise the efficacy of adaptation initiatives.
Looking ahead
Making progress towards the net-zero goals requires ambitious mitigation targets, effective implementation, and the adept navigation of the policy landscape. It is crucial for climate policies to be inclusive and aware of social and economic impacts, while remaining ambitious and effective. Countries must adapt their policies to ensure a just transition and protect vulnerable households and communities from being disproportionately affected. Understanding the full impact of these trends is essential for effective policymaking.
The Climate Action Monitor 2024 – 787786f6-en
