Africa – Middle East: Urgent emergency support requested for airlines

GENEVA, Switzerland — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is appealing to governments in Africa and the Middle East, as part of a worldwide campaign, to provide emergency support to airlines as they fight for survival due to the evaporation of air travel demand as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.

“Stopping the spread of COVID-19 is the top priority of governments. But they must be aware that the public health emergency has now become a catastrophe for economies and for aviation. The scale of the current industry crisis is much worse and far more widespread than 9/11, SARS or the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Airlines are fighting for survival.

Many routes have been suspended in Africa and the Middle East and airlines have seen demand fall by as much as 60 percent on remaining ones. Millions of jobs are at stake. Airlines need urgent government action if they are to emerge from this in a fit state to help the world recover, once COVID-19 is beaten,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and chief executive officer.

Extensive cost-cutting measures are being implemented by the region’s carriers to mitigate the financial impact of COVID-19. However, due to flight bans as well as international and regional travel restrictions, airlines’ revenues are plummeting—outstripping the scope of even the most drastic cost containment measures. With average cash reserves of approximately two months in the region, airlines are facing a liquidity and existential crisis. Support measures are urgently needed. On a global basis, IATA estimates that emergency aid of up to $200 billion is required.

IATA is proposing a number of options for governments to consider. They include:

• Direct financial support to passenger and cargo carriers to compensate for reduced revenues and liquidity attributable to travel restrictions imposed as a result of COVID-19;
• Loans, loan guarantees and support for the corporate bond market by governments or central banks. The corporate bond market is a vital source of finance, but the eligibility of corporate bonds for central bank support needs to be extended and guaranteed by governments to provide access for a wider range of companies.
• Tax relief: Rebates on payroll taxes paid to date in 2020 and/or an extension of payment terms for the rest of 2020, along with a temporary waiver of ticket taxes and other Government-imposed levies.

“Several governments in Africa and the Middle East have already committed national aid for COVID-19 including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, Nigeria and Mauritius. Our ask is that airlines, which are essential to all modern economies, are given urgent consideration. This will help keep them alive and ensure airline staff – and people working in allied sectors – have jobs to come back to at the end of the crisis. It will enable global supply chains to continue functioning and provide the connectivity that tourism and trade will depend on if they are to contribute to rapid post-pandemic economic growth,“ said Muhammad Al Bakri, IATA regional vice president Africa, Middle East.

Africa’s air transport industry’s economic contribution is estimated at US$55.8 billion supporting 6.2 million jobs and contributing 2.6 percent to GDP. In the Middle East air transport’s economic contribution is estimated at US$130 billion supporting 2.4 million jobs and contributing 4.4 percent to GDP.

COVID-19 effects by region

Africa overview

• Since the end of January thousands of passenger flights have been cancelled in Africa. This is expected to increase exponentially with the implementation of additional measures in different countries.
• International bookings in Africa are down roughly 20 percent in March and April, domestic bookings have fallen by about 15 percent in March and 25 percent in April, according to the latest data.
• African airlines had lost US$4.4 billion in revenue as at 11 March 2020.
• Ticket refunds have increased by 75 percent in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 (01 February – 11 March).

Country specific analysis

• South Africa: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario we published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 6M loss in passenger volumes and US$1.2 billion loss in base revenues in South Africa. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk over 102,000 jobs in the country.

• Kenya: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario we published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 622,000 loss in passenger volumes and US$125 million loss in base revenues in Kenya. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk over 36,800 jobs in the country. If the situation spreads further, approximately 1.6 million passengers and US$320 million of revenues can be lost.

• Ethiopia: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario we published on 5 March, the disruptions from the COVID-19 could result in 479,000 loss in passenger volumes and US$79 million loss in base revenues in Ethiopia. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk over 98,400 jobs in the country. If the situation spreads further, approximately 1.2 million passengers and US$202 million of revenues can be lost.

• Nigeria: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario we published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 853,000 loss in passenger volumes and US$170 million loss in base revenues in Nigeria. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk over 22,200 jobs in the country. If the situation spreads further, approximately 2.2 million passengers and US$434 million of revenues can be lost.

• Rwanda: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 79,000 loss in passenger volumes and US$ 20.4 million loss in base revenues in Rwanda. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk about 3,000 jobs in the country. If the situation spreads further, approximately 201,000 passengers and US$52 million of revenues can be lost.

Middle East overview

• Since the end of January 16,000 passenger flights have been cancelled in the Middle East. This is expected to increase exponentially with the additional measures in different countries.
• So far, international bookings in the Middle East are down 40 percent year-over-year in March and April, 30 percent year-over-year in May and June. Domestic bookings are down roughly 20 percent in March and April, 40 percent in May and June, according to the latest data available.
• Middle East airlines had lost US$7.2 billion revenue as at 11 March 2020.
• Ticket refunds have increased by 75 percent in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 (01 February – 11 March) .

Country specific analysis

• Bahrain: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 1.1 million loss in passenger volumes and US$204 million loss in base revenues in Bahrain. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk about 5,100 jobs in the country.

• Kuwait: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 2.9 million loss in passenger volumes and US$547 million loss in base revenues in Kuwait. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk over 19,800 jobs in the country.

• Oman: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 2 million loss in passenger volumes and US$328 million loss in base revenues in Oman. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk about 36,700 jobs in the country.

• Qatar: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 2.3 million loss in passenger volumes and US$746 million loss in base revenues in Qatar. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk about 33,200 jobs in the country.

• Saudi Arabia: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 15.7 million loss in passenger volumes and US$3.1 billion loss in base revenues in Saudi Arabia. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk over 140,300 jobs in the country.

• United Arab Emirates: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 13.6 million loss in passenger volumes and US$2.8 billion loss in base revenues in the United Arab Emirates. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk over 163,000 jobs in the country.

• Lebanon: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from the COVID-19 could result in 1.9 million loss in passenger volumes and US$365 million loss in base revenues in Lebanon. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk about 51,700 jobs in the country.

• Jordan: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in approximately 645,000 loss in passenger volumes and US$118.5 million loss in base revenues in Jordan. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk at least 6,100 jobs in the country. If the situation escalates further, 1.6M passengers and US$ 302.8M revenues can be lost.

• Egypt: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 6.3 million loss in passenger volumes and US$1 billion loss in base revenues in Egypt. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk about 138,000 jobs in the country:

• Morocco: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 4.9 million loss in passenger volumes and US$728 million loss in base revenues in Morocco. The disruptions to air travel could also put at risk over 225,000 jobs in the country.

• Tunisia: Consistent with the ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario published on 5 March, the disruptions from COVID-19 could result in 2.2 million loss in passenger volumes and US$297 million loss in base revenues in Tunisia.