By Brian Michael Jenkins
Possible US military action against Mexico’s drug cartels poses unique challenges. The situation is complicated, and the United States must be prepared for possible counteractions. Past government campaigns against the cartels led to soaring rates of criminal violence. Chaos in Mexico could have serious implications for US homeland security. The United States needs a ‘Red Team’ to examine a range of scenarios.
Abstract: Possible US military action against Mexico’s drug cartels poses unique challenges. The situation is complicated, and the United States must be prepared for possible counteractions. The cartels are not a single actor. If attacked, they may avoid direct confrontation, accepting temporary losses, anticipating that the United States will not sustain a long campaign. Or Mexico’s cartels may respond violently, exploiting US vulnerabilities in Mexico—and possibly north of the border. The government of Mexico is a separate actor. It can assist or undermine US efforts. Past government campaigns against the cartels led to soaring rates of criminal violence. Chaos in Mexico could have serious implications for US homeland security.
The United States needs a ‘Red Team’ to examine a range of scenarios. The article proceeds in six parts: Part I contrasts recent US military actions in Yemen and Iran with possible military action in Mexico. Part II examines perceptions of the threat. Part III examines how the history of US-Mexico relations will shape the battlefield. Part IV reviews our own experience in combating foreign drug traffickers, offering some preliminary takeaways. Part V examines possible options. Part VI looks at how the cartels might react, how the United States might be forced to respond—and how other adversaries of the United States might attempt to exploit the situation.
Recent public statements from the White House and news media reports suggest that the United States is preparing for military action against Mexico’s drug cartels. On January 20, 2025, the president designated six Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organisations.
In the following weeks, the United States deployed several active-duty Army and National Guard units, including a Stryker Brigade combat team and a general support aviation battalion, to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking. US Navy destroyers were deployed to “restore territorial integrity at the US Southern border” and assist in preventing narcotrafficking and operations against transnational criminal organisations.
The destroyers, which will be accompanied by US Coast Guard vessels, will strengthen maritime interdiction capabilities, but they are also armed with Tomahawk missiles, which recently were used in the bombardment of Houthi targets in Yemen.
