GEORGETOWN, Guyana – An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Lusine Lusinyan, held discussions virtually and in Georgetown for the 2026 Article IV Consultation during July 20–31, 2026. The team met with finance minister Dr Ashni Singh, Central Bank Governor Dr Gobind Ganga, minister of parliamentary affairs and governance Gail Teixeira, attorney-general and ninister of legal affairs Mohabir Anil Nandlall, and other senior officials, representatives from the private sector, banks, labor unions, and other stakeholders.
At the conclusion of the visit, Lusinyan issued the following statement:
Strong growth
Guyana’s economy continues to expand at a very rapid pace, supported by robust oil and non-oil activity. Real GDP grew by over 19 percent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 percent during 2023–24. Oil production exceeded expectations and surpassed 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025—an impressive 35 percent increase over one year, with similar volumes recorded in the first half of 2026. Encouragingly, broad-based growth in the non-oil economy continued at about 14 percent, with construction remaining the largest driver, and agriculture, mining, and manufacturing also contributing meaningfully. These trends broadly continued in the first half of 2026 though some sectors were affected by heavy rainfall. Robust growth was also reflected in a stronger labor market, with unemployment down at 6.2 percent by the end of 2025. Average inflation was contained to 3.3 percent in 2025 but edged up by mid-2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices.
The fiscal and external positions improved in 2025, and credit growth remained strong. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed by nearly two percentage points to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2025. Large public investment continued, and oil revenue more than offset the decline in non-oil revenue. The non-oil primary deficit amounted to one-third of non-oil GDP. Public sector credit helped finance the fiscal deficit, and private credit supported economic activity, especially through household credit and business lending across the real sector. Strong foreign exchange (FX) demand, especially from private investment with heavy import content, kept the FX market tight. At the same time, rising oil production and a decline in oil-related service imports strengthened the external position, which is assessed to be broadly in line with the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies in 2025.
Prudent macroeconomic policies continue to support growth. Building on the Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030, the government’s five-year development plan maintains a welcome focus on economic diversification, resilience, and sustainability. Continued accumulation of oil revenue in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) is helping build external and fiscal buffers, while large investments in physical and human capital are supporting non-oil growth and improving outcomes, especially in health and education. Tight monetary conditions have helped maintain price and exchange rate stability, while fiscal measures have cushioned near-term price pressures. These policies, together with continued strengthening of governance frameworks, have helped sustain macroeconomic stability, support growth, and advance national development priorities. Available indicators do not point to clear signs of overheating or resource-driven competitiveness pressures. But strong wage growth and wage-based real exchange rate indicators warrant close monitoring.
Outlook and risks
The economic outlook remains highly favourable. Oil production is expected to continue expanding, and the non-oil economy is projected to grow by about 7 percent on average over the next five years as the government continues its ambitious plans to address infrastructure and developmental needs. The external position is expected to remain strong over the medium term, supported by higher oil production as new fields come onstream and existing projects mature. High oil prices strengthen the outlook for export earnings and the fiscal position going forward. As oil operators complete cost recovery, a larger share of oil revenues will accrue to Guyana through higher NRF inflows.
Risks around the near-term outlook are broadly balanced in the context of elevated global uncertainty. On the upside, further oil discoveries would continue to improve growth prospects, and construction growth and strong public investment may support higher-than-expected short-term non-oil growth. Higher oil prices would further improve fiscal and external accounts but could also intensify overheating pressures, leading to real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy, with oil price volatility adding to fiscal risks. Adverse climate shocks may also negatively impact the economy.
Fiscal policy
Staff commends the authorities for sustained prudent fiscal policies. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen somewhat in 2026 due to social transfers and electricity subsidies but improve in 2027 given the one-year lag in the NRF withdrawal rule. If oil prices remain persistently high, a larger share of additional oil revenue should be saved, in line with the economy’s absorptive capacity. Public spending should continue to prioritise productivity-enhancing projects and support the most vulnerable. Policy efforts should remain focused on strengthening monitoring of spending outcomes and oversight of public enterprises. Staff urged that consideration be given to improving the targeting of subsidies. Over time, broad price-mitigating measures should be gradually phased out, as they can weaken price signals. The authorities’ prudent borrowing strategy continues to support debt sustainability, with the risk of debt distress assessed as low, as in the previous assessment.
Reflecting strong commitment to fiscal responsibility, policies have supported rapid accumulation of substantial NRF balances and one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the hemisphere. The budget documents already provide detailed medium-term projections, performance indicators, and macroeconomic assumptions, offering a robust foundation for further developing medium- and long-term fiscal guideposts as the economy continues to transform. To help guide the balance between spending now and the needs of future generations, the non-oil primary balance could serve as the main operational target, strengthening gradually over the next decade to a level consistent with a chosen long-run anchor. During the transition period, public spending should continue to be aligned with peer-country levels of Sustainable Development Goal-related expenditure—taking into account the higher cost of public service delivery in a low population density country such as Guyana. Staff will continue to engage with the authorities on how best to calibrate medium- and long-term fiscal guideposts to Guyana’s development needs and absorptive capacity.
Monetary and exchange rate policy
Monetary policy should remain consistent with the stabilised exchange rate arrangement and price stability. Policy continues to operate within a reserve money targeting regime, with liquidity management—primarily through FX operations—helping moderate base money growth. Broad money growth should remain broadly aligned with nominal non-oil GDP, with liquidity managed through FX operations, as needed, in addition to greater use of treasury bills and reserve requirements. Additional tightening would be warranted if demand pressures intensify, credit accelerates, or exchange rate pressures emerge.
Over time, as Guyana’s economy expands and diversifies, incomes rise, and FX demand persists, the monetary framework should be strengthened by activating the interest rate channel, deepening financial markets, improving macroprudential tools, and gradually scaling back broad price-mitigating measures. These steps would enhance monetary transmission and further support macroeconomic stability. The current stabilized exchange rate regime remains appropriate, and over the medium term, as policy frameworks mature and the economy diversifies further, consideration could be given to allowing greater exchange rate flexibility to facilitate macroeconomic adjustment and enhance resilience to shocks.
Financial stability
The banking sector remains well capitalised, with robust liquidity buffers and improving asset quality. Stress tests continue to suggest that banks remain resilient under reasonable adverse scenarios. Staff welcomes the authorities’ continued vigilance in safeguarding financial stability, including concentration risks. Developing a comprehensive macroprudential framework, including through technical assistance, would further help safeguard financial stability, and enhance policy formulation and implementation. Rapid growth in the housing market, largely supported by public housing investment, warrants continued close monitoring, and developing a real estate price index would strengthen the financial stability toolkit. Data collection on corporate and household balance sheets would further support risk monitoring and banking supervision, and cybersecurity standards should be further enhanced as digitalisation of services expands.
Governance
Staff welcomes ongoing efforts to further enhance public sector transparency and service delivery, supported by digitalisation. The authorities are advancing digital solutions across key public services, including interoperability of management information systems. Timely audits of available financial accounts continue, supported also by efforts to strengthen internal audit practices. Staff acknowledges the authorities’ efforts to resolve outstanding cost-oil audits, including through arbitration. Given their fiscal and governance implications, resolving these audits in a timely manner remains important. Improving timeliness of financial accounts of public enterprises and agencies also remains a priority. The authorities are encouraged to continue strengthening audit capacity, especially in oil and gas sector. As public expenditure expands rapidly, ongoing efforts to further strengthen public procurement practices and ensure consistent compliance with the procurement framework will help safeguard spending quality, supported by the new centralised digital platform.
Staff welcomes the authorities’ strong commitment to strengthening AML/CFT and anti-corruption frameworks. The authorities are pursuing a comprehensive approach to AML/CFT, including steps to address vulnerabilities identified in Guyana’s 2024 Mutual Evaluation Report by the Caribbean Financial Action Task Force and preparing new AML legislation along with modernising the relevant legislative frameworks. Staff commends the authorities’ efforts to strengthen oversight and transparency of the gold mining sector, with the planned risk assessment of extractive industries expected to contribute to identifying remaining gaps and informing further reforms. While some beneficial ownership information is already publicly available, facilitating public access and enhancing monitoring and enforcement of reporting requirements would further support transparency. Continued strengthening of the Integrity Commission, including compliance with and enforcement of asset declaration requirements, will also reinforce the broader anti-corruption framework.
Climate, energy, and diversification
Guyana remains at the forefront of market-based forest conservation while advancing its transition to a cleaner and more cost-effective energy mix. Staff welcomes the authorities’ strong commitment to strengthening resilience to climate-related risks and protecting biodiversity. Efforts to bolster resilience to natural disasters are advancing through investments in sea defenses and drainage infrastructure alongside investments in more climate-resilient agriculture. The Gas-to-Energy project is expected to significantly reduce reliance on fuel-based power generation by 2027, with limited use subsequently as demand expands, lowering energy costs and supporting long-term competitiveness.
Efforts to strengthen human capital, expand job opportunities, and enhance food security remain central to the authorities’ broader diversification strategy. The Local Content framework continues to support private sector development, while higher personal income tax thresholds are helping to encourage labor force participation. Reforms to address labor shortages should continue, including to strengthen skills and better align the workforce with the needs of a rapidly expanding economy. Ongoing initiatives to boost agricultural production and reduce regional food import dependence will support export diversification and enhance food security.
Economic statistics
Staff welcomes the authorities’ continued efforts to strengthen official statistics to better reflect the economy’s transformation. These efforts include enhancing external and real sector statistics, including with technical assistance, as well as resuming regular labor force surveys and publishing preliminary census results. While progress continues in these areas, advancing work on updating national accounts, price, and external sector statistics remains a key priority. Together with maintaining regular updates to the labor force survey and the planned rollout of a new household budget survey, these efforts are important to strengthen the information base for policymaking and assess the impact of policies on economic growth and living standards.
Young Indian ‘cockroaches’ reclaim democratic space
By K.S. Dakshina Murthy
Widespread agitation by Indian students against exam corruption and mismanagement since 6 June 2026 has tested the limits of the country’s receding democratic space. Satirically calling themselves the ‘Cockroach Janata Party’ after a Supreme Court judge disdainfully referred to them as ‘cockroaches’, tens of thousands of mainly college and school age youngsters and young professionals took to the streets. Some went on hunger strike for several weeks at the high-profile protest platform, Jantar Mantar, in Delhi.
Their main demand was the resignation of Human Resources Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who managed the Education portfolio. He eventually had to resign. The protesters held him accountable for the leak of exam papers, which resulted in the suicides of 27 students, deeply distressed by the way the exams were mismanaged. These protests were against the backdrop of the rapid substantial expansion of tertiary education in India, but opportunities for graduates in quality, well-paid jobs have failed to keep pace. (Approximately 370 million of India’s population are aged between 15-29. Of these, nearly 40 percent of 15-25-year-olds are unemployed; for 25- 29-year-olds the unemployment figure is approximately 20 percent; and, only a small percentage manage to secure stable paid jobs within a year of graduation.) The series of test paper leaks across various prestigious exams, including NEET (for entrance into medical colleges) and CUET (for admission into the various universities), challenged prime minister Narendra Modi’s government in a rare show of spontaneous outrage against the inability of education officials to hold entrance exams.
In democratic societies, nationwide agitation like that of the students is not unusual. What has made the current protests stand out as a test case is because the protests are occurring at a time when Indian state institutions are under pressure to conform to the wishes of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government; public dissent is frowned upon – with sometimes serious consequences, including incarceration.
At the same time, many of those who criticise the government have been pressured by enforcement agencies; critics have been jailed pending trial for extended periods, underlining the process is the punishment for dissent. Many have, in fact, been acquitted of all charges after languishing in jail for months, if not years. Top opposition leaders, such as the former chief minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, have been arrested and jailed before being freed after the courts found no misdemeanour against them. Another oft-quoted case is of Umar Khalid, a student at Jawaharlal Nehru University, who played an active role in opposing the government’s move to amend the Citizenship Act (CAA) that discriminated against giving citizenship to undocumented Muslim migrants from neighbouring countries. Khalid was arrested for his alleged involvement in the Delhi riots in September 2020, and has since languished in jail, waiting for trial.
For many in India, the way elections have been conducted since independence in 1947 have been a source of pride. Despite issues with governance, corruption and increasingly constrained freedom of media, elections were always regarded as above board – free and fair. However, the latest round of elections to state Assemblies, including in Bihar, West Bengal, have raised profound doubts over the fairness of polling. Under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls hurriedly undertaken in Bihar and then in West Bengal in 2025-6, over 4.5 million – particularly Muslim minorities – were disenfranchised on various grounds. While it is obvious that the names of the dead, those who have changed their addresses, registered in multiple places or migrated from their homes need to be delisted, many others who have voted in the past and who have appropriate documentation, were removed the electoral list. The numbers were large enough to affect the outcome of the elections.
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Since the start of SIR, in the last year alone, approximately 60 million names have been removed from the voters’ list across ten states. Such a mass disenfranchisement is unprecedented in the 79-year history of independent India. In past decades, the Election Commission (EC), originally designed as an autonomous institution, had largely been free from governmental interference. This appears to be no longer the case. There are scores of instances showing that the current EC has complied with the Modi government’s wishes. In July 2026, in an unusual move, the opposition parties approached the Supreme Court, alleging manipulation of elections and the partisan conduct of the Election Commission on the grounds that ‘democracy was in jeopardy’.
Given these extraordinary developments, one would have expected the media in India to call out the BJP government to halt the steady march towards autocracy. Barring exceptions in legacy print and digital media who seem to be maintaining editorial independence, the rest – in the electronic media – by and large appear to follow government diktat. Pejoratively termed the ‘godi’ media (‘lapdog media’), mainstream television channels unabashedly support the government. It is therefore no surprise that India’s ranking in the World Freedom Index has dropped sharply from 151/180 in 2025 to 157/180 in 2026. There are structural and financial reasons for this decline: historically the Indian media has been dependent on government and corporate advertising. Criticism of the government risks advertising revenue. The same is true for corporate sponsorship. Smaller, independent media outlets are reliant on reader/viewer subscription to avoid government or corporate control. Some succeed for a time, but these are far and few. As a consequence, in the post-2026 poll narrative, aided by a compliant media, the failings of the BJP have been ignored and instead a glowing picture of victory is headlined. Meanwhile, the massive delisting of eligible Indian citizens from the electoral process has been overlooked. The Supreme Court’s advice to the currently disenfranchised voters is to re-register to vote in the next elections.
This is the context of the Cockroach Janta Party’s agitation against blatant corruption and an increasingly repressive government which treats political opposition and criticism as enemies of the state.
Where is the Commonwealth, given the evident backsliding of democracy? India is a prominent member, and the supposed ‘largest democracy’ in the association. But India should not be immune to being held to the standards of the Commonwealth Charter.
– K. S. Dakshina Murthy is Consulting Editor for The Federal, India.
[This article was shared with the Round Table by the author. Views expressed in articles do not reflect the position of the editorial board.]